An Econometric Analysis of the Food Gap and Related Macroeconomic Variables in Egypt: A Vector Autoregressive Approach (VAR) Model

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University.

Abstract

In the past two decades, Egypt has suffered from weakness in the main performance indicators of the agricultural sector, and this is clearly demonstrated by the lack of a minimum level of selfsufficiency in most agricultural commodities and animal products, which means the inevitable existence of a food gap, which puts more pressure on the Egyptian food balance to meet their population’s food needs. The paper aims to investigate the performance of the agricultural sector and identify the related macroeconomic variables caused by the food gap in Egypt. So, the paper will rely on descriptive, quantitative economic methods and econometric models to analyze the time series data during the period from 1973 to 2022 by using the Vector Autoregressive Approach (VAR) model. The main findings are that the performance of the agriculture sector in Egypt cannot meet the current population's needs for food, and the food gap will expand in the future, leading to destructive impacts on food and national security levels. Therefore, developing a road map to modernize the agricultural sector through a group of suggestions and recommendations will improve its performance and reduce the food gap in Egypt.

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